Friday, November 20, 2009
Academic Etiquette
link here
While we're on the topic...
In that case it may benefit the man to draw his attention to some research closer to home.
The current crisis in Ireland: will we get a replay?
Dijksterhuis A, Bos MW, van der Leij A, & van Baaren RB (2009). Predicting Soccer Matches After Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise. Psychological science : a journal of the American Psychological Society
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19818044
Thursday, November 19, 2009
CSO Releases
link here
A Message From Thierry
The Technology Safety Net
Related to this is the issue of dissemination is household technology. CSO figures tell us that about 35% of households in the country don't have a computer! Imagine. With computing technology experiencing huge reductions in price it might be worth considering the feasibility of a tax-initiative to bolster demand among these households. If we can do a 'bikes to work' scheme then why not a 'computers to learn, connect, search, explore, find' scheme. The bike idea is capped at 1,000 euro (aside: surprising how many 800 euro imported bikes are being bought at the moment, given recessionary times!) and offered over five years, as i understand. It is available at both the higher and lower tax bands. The computer scheme might be targeted best at the lower band. Understandably, tax expenditures are not the flavour of the month but one has to wonder... if we're serious about the SmartEconomy and technology/information lead recovery then we need to be proactive and have national policy guide the way in practical ways. I don't think we need to read about the benefits of having a computer with internet access but it might be worth considering some for a moment - information, training, education, job-search, social connection. Even a basic-user level it's utility is clear and potential enormous. I think in any CBA it would look quite good against tax relief on a car scrappage scheme, to mention one wonderful idea thats out there at the moment.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this, good, bad, or indifferent.
Finally, to declare a particular interest, one associated benefit that you may not be thinking of is the ability to participate in National Household Panel Surveys which are the backbone of statistics gathering in the 20 most developed countries internationally. Or should I say 21. Go Geary, go!
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Economists for Cancelling Christmas
link here
Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
http://www.upjohninst.org/
Irish Economic Association Conference: Belfast 2010
The Centre of Full Employment and Equity
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Ferdinand on Open Access
link here
Experiments
Lab Experiments Are a Major Source of Knowledge in the Social Sciences
Armin Falk, James Heckman
| Laboratory experiments are a widely used methodology for advancing causal knowledge in the physical and life sciences. With the exception of psychology, the adoption of laboratory experiments has been much slower in the social sciences, although during the last two decades, the use of lab experiments has accelerated. Nonetheless, there remains considerable resistance among social scientists who argue that lab experiments lack "realism" and "generalizability". In this article we discuss the advantages and limitations of laboratory social science experiments by comparing them to research based on non-experimental data and to field experiments. We argue that many recent objections against lab experiments are misguided and that even more lab experiments should be conducted. | |
Paying People to Work Shorter Hours
link here
"Germany has used this policy to keep its unemployment rate at 7.6 percent, about the same as it was before the recession. Imagine if workers in the United States, like workers in Germany, were dealing with the recession by putting in four-day weeks (while getting paid for five) or getting an extra two weeks of paid vacation. This sure beats being unemployed."
Does Competition Affect Giving?
Charities often devise fund-raising strategies that exploit natural human competitiveness in combination with the desire for public recognition. We explore whether institutions promoting competition can affect altruistic giving - even when possibilities for public acclaim are minimal. In a controlled laboratory experiment based on a sequential “dictator game”, we find that subjects tend to give more when placed in a generosity tournament, and tend to give less when placed in an earnings tournament - even if there is no award whatsoever for winning the tournament. Further we find that subjects’ experimental behavior correlates with their responses to a post-experiment questionnaire, particularly questions addressing altruistic and rivalrous behavior. Based on this evidence, we argue that behavior in our experiment is driven, in part, by innate competitive motives.
Oxytocin & empathy
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2009/1116/3?rss=1
A Healthy Recovery
Monday, November 16, 2009
Robert Shiller: Bubbles Forever
link here
Marcel Das - LISS Panel
As Marcel notes in the talk, the Tilburg team and their colleagues and funders have gone to great lengths to make this available. If you are using the data, please register. Otherwise, they do not have evidence to present on the usage of the resource.
International Workshop on Applied Economics of Education
* Christian Belzil (École Polytechnique, Paris)
* Hessel Oosterbeek (Universitet van Amsterdam)
* Ian Walker (Lancaster University)
Submissions to the conference can be made until March 1st. More details are available here.
Research by Susan Dynarski
(i) Complexity and Targeting in Federal Student Aid: "Puzzlingly, there is little compelling evidence that Pell Grants and Stafford Loans, the primary federal student aid programs, are effective in achieving this goal (increasing college enrolment)."
(ii) Building the Stock of College-Educated Labor: "Even with the offer of free tuition,
many students continue to drop out, suggesting tuition costs are not the only
impediment to college completion."
(iii) The Lengthening of Childhood: "Almost every state has increased the age at which children are allowed to start primary school. This change is remarkable given the strong evidence that, in the United States, starting school later decreases educational attainment."
I would be willing to facilitate one of these papers in a journal club before December 3rd.
Beyond Diabolic Governance in Hyperbolic Ireland
An incisive article in the SBP by Prof. Ed Walsh that tackles head-on one of the biggest and most blatant problems in the country - effective governance. The current dismal economic situation is expressed as a result of mismanagement and it is made clear that without constitutional reform we're unlikely to be headed anywhere better.
The specific reform proposed is changing the electoral process to a List System:
"whereby members of parliament are elected partially from local constituencies and partially from party lists of individuals who have proven records of distinguished national and international achievement: many from business and the professions"
Such a system would increase the pool of management talent and their ability to govern by quelling incentives for the all too common and clearly retrogressive process of myopic pandering to local constituents for re-election. I fully agree that Ministers need to focus on the major national issues and plan strategically for a better future - difficult and unpalatable decisions need to be made in the next few months and years to steady the county and secure prosperity for the future. Walsh essentially makes the point that if our constitution is preventing this, we need to change it.
Some interesting points in the article:
"Our system ... deters the government from moving swiftly and taking difficult decisions.... the pool from which a Taoiseach draws when forming a government is limited indeed, because in effect it bypasses leaders of enterprise and the professions with the necessary strategic management skills and experience...”
“Our system … draws over 80 per cent of the Oireachtas from a group of some 1,000 people: the members of local authorities. While a county or city council would certainly be a source of pleasant and well-intentioned people it would be an unlikely source of the experienced talent required to strategically guide national policy and effectively manage a multibillion budget"
"The Oireachtas has not risen to the occasion by conveying a new seriousness appropriate to these dangerous times; rather it has continued the pursuit of trivia and political bloodsports in a raucous way that has not enhanced its standing."
".... the quality of national governance can not exceed the quality of those who govern."
Evaluating the Impact of the UCD New ERA Widening Participation Initiative
Measuring International Technology Spillovers and Progress Towards the European Research Area
Behavioural Economics and Business
Sunday, November 15, 2009
World Bank Working Paper: Commitment Devices for Smoking Cessation
Gine, Xavier
Karlan, Dean
Zinman, Jonathan
Abstract
The authors designed and tested a voluntary commitment product to help smokers quit smoking. The product (CARES) offered smokers a savings account in which they deposit funds for six months, after which they take a urine test for nicotine and cotinine. If they pass, their money is returned; otherwise, their money is forfeited to charity. Eleven percent of smokers offered CARES tookup, and smokers randomly offered CARES were 3 percentage points more likely to pass the 6-month test than the control group. More importantly, this effect persisted in surprise tests at 12 months, indicating that CARES produced lasting smoking cessation.
World Bank Working Paper: Diasporas
Author Info
Beine, Michel
Docquier, Frederic
Ozden, Caglar
Abstract
Migration flows are shaped by a complex combination of self-selection and out-selection mechanisms. In this paper, the authors analyze how existing diasporas (the stock of people born in a country and living in another one) affect the size and human-capital structure of current migration flows. The analysis exploits a bilateral data set on international migration by educational attainment from 195 countries to 30 developed countries in 1990 and 2000. Based on simple micro-foundations and controlling for various determinants of migration, the analysis finds that diasporas increase migration flows, lower the average educational level and lead to higher concentration of low-skill migrants. Interestingly, diasporas explain the majority of the variability of migration flows and selection. This suggests that, without changing the generosity of family reunion programs, education-based selection rules are likely to have a moderate impact. The results are highly robust to the econometric techniques, accounting for the large proportion of zeros and endogeneity problems.
Obama Retirement Policies
The option of allowing people to take their tax refunds in the form of government bonds simply by ticking a box is really clever and should be looked at in Ireland, though would be quantitatively less significant over here.
link here
Marshmallow Experiments
Nudge blog has a description of the famous experiments along with some video - link here
Melbourne Conference
link here
IZA Paper - Public Health Consequences of Job Loss
Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Kuhn, Andreas (kuhn@iew.uzh.ch) (University of Zurich)
Lalive, Rafael (Rafael.Lalive@unil.ch) (University of Lausanne)
Zweimüller, Josef (zweim@iew.unizh.ch) (University of Zurich)
Abstract
We study the short-run effect of involuntary job loss on comprehensive measures of public health costs. We focus on job loss induced by plant closure, thereby addressing the reverse causality problem of deteriorating health leading to job loss as job displacements due to plant closure are unlikely caused by workers' health status, but potentially have important effects on individual workers' health and associated public health costs. Our empirical analysis is based on a rich data set from Austria providing comprehensive information on various types of health care costs and day-by-day work history at the individual level. Our central findings are: (i) overall expenditures on medical treatments (hospitalizations, drug prescriptions, doctor visits) are not strongly affected by job displacement; (ii) job loss increases expenditures for antidepressants and related drugs, as well as for hospitalizations due to mental health problems for men (but not for women); and (iii) sickness benefits strongly increase due to job loss.
Irish History Online
"Irish History Online is an authoritative guide (in progress) to what has been written about Irish history from earliest times to the present. It was established in association with the Royal Historical Society Bibliography of British and Irish History (of which it is now the Irish component) and London's Past Online."
N.B. Particular attention is being paid to enhancing coverage of the Irish abroad: during 2008 over 500 new records on the Irish abroad were added, including many references collected in libraries in the U.S.A. and Canada.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Structural versus Atheoretical Econometrics
link here
comments are a response to a paper by Michael Keane. the Keane paper makes points that are similar to the Deaton "randomisation in the tropics" article that created so much debate earlier this year. The Keane paper contains some interesting discussions of the role of quasi-experiments in economics, the extent to which "atheoretical" exploration of relationships has led to progress in other sciences, the importance of validation and related issues.
link here
Day of the Week Again
I prefer weekdays to weekends myself for the most part but I had assumed (and many people agree) that was due to me being weird. Perhaps Germanic is a better description.
link here
PDF organiser
I spent some time trying to find a PC equivalent to papers for mac- Mendeley is a great way of organising PDFs you have stored on your computer. It works similarily to how itunes works... you have pdf's stored somewhere and it links to it. It also can create bibliographies in word similarily to endnote, and although I haven't used this function yet I imagine it's pretty user friendly.
At the moment it's a beta version and free can be downloaded from:
http://www.mendeley.com/
You download it to your desktop. If you add a Mendeley bookmark to your internet explorer/firefox PDF information can be exported from google scholar amongst others.
Early intervention reduces teenage pregnancy
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Seminar Ouellet-Morin. Early LIfe Stress and Cortisol
Isabelle Ouellet-Morin (King's College) will be giving a talk "Shaping effects of early life stress on cortisol secretion in childhood" in the Behavioural Seminar Series as follows:
Speaker: Isabelle Ouellet-Morin
Seminar Title: "Shaping effects of early life stress on cortisol secretion in childhood"
Venue: Geary Seminar Room B003/004
Date: Tuesday 17th November
Time: 1pm
All Welcome
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Blog Development
For example
- Journal Links at the side?
- Seminar Series that I have missed
- Upcoming Conference Deadlines (will update these later)
- Other Blogs we should include on the sidebar
- Other links to audio and visual sites at the side
- As per previous suggestions, we will shortly begin to start including our own audio and video material. The Geary podcasts are already available from the sidebar but we will also start posting material such as videos from last Friday's events.
Superfreakonomics
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Every day is Saturday
link here
2000 Posts Since January 2007
2,000 posts on Geary Behavioural Economics Blog Since January 2007.
In the words of one of our favourite collaborators "have yiz nothing better to do yiz clowns"!!
Articles referenced in Aoife O'Grady's talk
Here are links to the articles that she cited:
Dept for Transport Social research on Attitudes to Road Pricing, Climate Change and the Role of the Car - see http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/social/
Blamey and MacKenzie (2007 "Theories of Change and Realistic Evaluation: Peas in a pod or apples and oranges?" in Evaluation, 2007; 13; 439
Connell, J.P., A.C. Kubisch, L.B. Schorr and C.H. Weiss (1995) New Approaches to Evaluating Community Initiatives, vol. 1, Concepts, Methods and Contexts. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute.
Fulbright-Anderson, K., A. Kubisch and J. Connell, eds (1998) New Approaches to Evaluating Community Initiatives, vol. 2, Theory, Measurement, and Analysis. Washington, DC: Aspen Institute.
Pawson, R. and N. Tilley (1997) Realistic Evaluation. London: SAGE
Weiss, C.H. (1998) Evaluation: Methods for Studying Programs and Policies. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Randomised Evaluation of a Parenting Programme
A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Early Childhood Intervention: Evidence from a Randomised Evaluation of a Parenting Programme
by Donal O'Neill (October 2009)
Abstract:
A number of researchers and policy makers have recently argued that the most effective way of dealing with long-run disadvantage and the intergenerational transmission of poverty is through early childhood intervention and in particular policies aimed at supporting the family in early childhood development. In this paper we carry out a randomised evaluation of one such programme aimed at improving the skills and parenting strategies of parents, particularly those who find their child's behaviour difficult or challenging. Our evaluation shows that the treatment significantly reduced behavioural problems in young children when measured 6 months after the intervention. Furthermore our detailed cost analysis, combined with a consideration of the potential long-run benefits associated with the programme, suggest that the long-run rate of return to society from this programme is likely to be relatively high.
More Migration Trends
The first chart is an extension of the figure produced in my previous post. I have extended the data series back to 1958. A similar relationship exists. Figure two does not show a relationship between contemporaneous GDP growth and net migration. However, the key word here is contemporaneous, because this figure fails to take account of lags in Real GDP growth, an important issue no doubt. As I said in the comments, you would be able to net out these effects with appropriate time-series econometrics, something I hope to do soon.
The third figure shows the long-run relationship between the Irish-UK GDP per capita difference. I choose the UK because it has been the primary destination country for Irish migrants in the 20th century. It will be interesting to see how this relationship holds in the near future. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Australia, New Zealand and Canada are now the major destinations for Irish migration. A scatter plot of real GDP growth rate differences and net migration yields a similar result to the second figure. Again, I would highlight the difficulty in drawing inference from this comparison.
The last figure demonstrates the long-run relationship between net migration and unemployment. It is interesting to note that 2009's position in this figure is not an outlier. This would suggest that labor market conditions may provide the clearest pathway through which we can examine the effects of economic trends on demography. However, with issues such as lags, reverse-causality, this issue is very much open to debate.



Nutrition Symposium
link here